The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Ajax and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Vitesse 2-2 Ajax
Sunday, May 15 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Sunday, May 15 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 33 | 79 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 43 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 33 | 43 | 71 |
Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 0-2 Benfica
Friday, May 13 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Friday, May 13 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 47 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
We said: Ajax 3-1 Benfica (Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate)
Ajax need no lessons in putting the ball in the back of the net at home - whether that be against domestic or continental counterparts - and Ten Hag's side can pick Benfica off as the Portuguese side go in search of goals themselves. While Darwin Nunez is always a threat in and around the box, we cannot back Benfica with any real confidence even with the fit-again Yaremchuk named in the squad, and Ajax will enter this battle as the firm favourites to book their quarter-final tickets. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.02%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 23.19% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.3%) and 1-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Benfica |
| 56.02% | 20.79% | 23.19% |
| Both teams to score 64.17% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
