Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 43%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
