Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.