With both nations having avoided defeat in competitive fixtures earlier this week, confidence is growing heading into this match. With that in mind, we feel that a low-scoring share of the spoils is most likely as they look to avoid defeat before the start of their Euro 2024 qualification campaign.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 31.18% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Slovenia in this match.
-10.35) 
4.18) 
