Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (8.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
