Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 51.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 23.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
