Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 39.42%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
