Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 50.2%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.29%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
