Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Rwanda had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Rwanda win was 1-0 (11.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.