The Match
Match Report
Portugal advance to the World Cup playoff final courtesy of a 3-1 win over Turkey in their semi-final contest in Porto.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Portugal and Turkey, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Portugal could line up for Thursday's World Cup 2022 Qualifying playoff semi-final against Turkey.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Portugal 4-0 Switzerland
Sunday, June 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Sunday, June 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Portugal vs. Czech Republic
Thursday, June 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Thursday, June 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League A2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Spain | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Switzerland | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Last Game: Lithuania 0-6 Turkey
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Luxembourg vs. Turkey
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League C1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 50.56%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Turkey win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Turkey |
| 50.56% | 22.88% | 26.56% |
| Both teams to score 60.38% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
