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World Cup
Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 18, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Colombia national football team

Ecuador
0 - 0
Colombia


Hincapie (33'), Gruezo (41')
FT

Mosquera (9'), Sanchez (25'), Arias (27'), Cuesta (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Colombia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bolivia 1-2 Ecuador
Friday, October 13 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Colombia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Colombia 2-2 Uruguay
Thursday, October 12 at 9.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Ecuador 1-1 Colombia

 With an additional automatic qualifying spot on offer to South America for the 2026 World Cup, these two nations will both expect to comfortably qualify after making positive starts to the campaign. As such, neither manager or set of players would likely be too disappointed with a draw, and that is the result we are predicting between two evenly matched sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.24%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 21.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (7.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.39%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 15.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawColombia
47.24% (0.877 0.88) 30.82% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03) 21.94% (-0.844 -0.84)
Both teams to score 34.7% (-0.629 -0.63)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
28.85% (-0.373 -0.37)71.15% (0.374 0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
12.04% (-0.234 -0.23)87.96% (0.23399999999999 0.23)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.07% (0.279 0.28)30.93% (-0.278 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.78% (0.326 0.33)67.22% (-0.32599999999999 -0.33)
Colombia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.23% (-1.119 -1.12)49.77% (1.12 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.5% (-0.795 -0.8)84.49% (0.794 0.79)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 47.23%
    Colombia 21.93%
    Draw 30.82%
EcuadorDrawColombia
1-0 @ 18.06% (0.39 0.39)
2-0 @ 10.59% (0.3 0.3)
2-1 @ 7.4% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.15% (0.15 0.15)
3-1 @ 2.89% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.22% (0.053 0.05)
3-2 @ 1.01% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 47.23%
0-0 @ 15.39% (0.21 0.21)
1-1 @ 12.6% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-2 @ 2.58% (-0.093 -0.09)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 30.82%
0-1 @ 10.74% (-0.19 -0.19)
1-2 @ 4.4% (-0.192 -0.19)
0-2 @ 3.75% (-0.193 -0.19)
1-3 @ 1.02% (-0.079 -0.08)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 21.93%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Colombia

Ecuador
50.0%
Draw
25.0%
Colombia
25.0%
64
Head to Head
Oct 14, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Colombia
0-0
Ecuador
Estupinan (54'), Mena (77')
> Preview
Jun 14, 2021 1am
Group Stage
Colombia
1-0
Ecuador
Uribe (25'), Munoz (79'), Borre (90')
Valencia (87')
> Preview
Nov 17, 2020 9pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
6-1
Colombia
Arboleda (7'), Mena (9'), Estrada (32'), Arreaga (39'), Plata (78'), Estupinan (90+1')
Ibarra (45+3'), Perlaza (51'), Plata (60'), Mendez (68')
Plata (80')
Rodriguez (45+1' pen.)
Lerma (13'), Murillo (53'), Cuadrado (66'), Suarez (86'), Fabra (90')
> Preview
Nov 20, 2019 1am
International Friendlies
Ecuador
0-1
Colombia

Arreaga (65')
Uribe (42')
Barrios (80')
Mar 28, 2017 10pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
0-2
Colombia
Rodriguez (20'), Cuadrado (34')
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