Nothing less than three points will do for Metz when they welcome Lyon to the Stade Saint-Symphorien on Sunday afternoon as the Ligue 1 season reaches its final three games.
The hosts sit bottom of the table but are still just about avoiding relegation confirmation, whilst the visitors are hoping to squeeze into the European spots.
Match preview
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A point earned in a draw last time out helped Metz stave off relegation for a few more days at least, but it was a point that came in disappointing circumstances nonetheless.
After a goal in each half from Thomas Delaine and Louis Mafouta had given them a two-goal lead over Montpellier, hopes of an unlikely survival had perhaps started to blossom amongst the more optimistic Metz fans.
Things would fall apart in the final 10 minutes, however, right-back Arnaud Souquet scoring a surprising but also impressive header to reduce the arrears, and then Elye Wahi turning home a heartbreaking equaliser after a slip from Boubacar Kouyate.
Despite being the only team in the bottom six to pick up a point last weekend, that results leaves Metz eight points from the true safety of 17th place, but also six points behind Saint-Etienne in the relegation playoff spot with just nine points now available.
So it quite simply has to be a win this weekend, but they will be facing a team in high spirits and with something still to play for.
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Lyon have long been a bogey team for Marseille, Les Olympiens having won just 26% of their 103 Ligue 1 matches against their old foes - their lowest percentage against any current top-flight side.
That statistic was made a little bit worse for OM on Sunday evening as they fell 3-0 in the Olympico.
Castello Lukeba was in the right place at the right time to score a somewhat controversial opener, before the club's top scorers Moussa Dembele and Karl Toko Ekambi each grabbed their 18th goal in all competitions this season to secure the result.
Draws for Strasbourg and Lens saw Les Gones move up a place and close in on sixth in the table but, unfortunately for them, Rennes, Monaco and Nice all won again so the European spots remained the same distance away.
A five-point gap is certainly not insurmountable, but - just like their upcoming opponents - surely only a win will do this weekend.
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Team News
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For the hosts, Alexandre Oukidja should return to his spot between the sticks, having now served his suspension, with Marc-Aurele Caillard returning to the bench.
However, whilst one player returns from suspension, another has picked one up - Vincent Pajot misses out due to an accumulation of bookings.
Ibrahim Amadou joins a lengthy injury list after suffering a fractured cheekbone, whilst defenders Dylan Bronn and Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik are also doubts.
Lyon's Jason Denayer and Damien Da Silva both returned to training this week, but Jerome Boateng should partner goalscorer Lukeba in defence.
Peter Bosz is unlikely to make too many changes from the side that performed so well against Marseille, but Tanguy Ndombele could potentially find his way into the starting XI.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Lacroix, Kouyate, Niakate; Centonze, Traore, N'Doram, Sarr, Delaine; De Preville, Lamkel Ze
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Gusto, Lukeba, Boateng, Emerson; Aouar, Mendes; Dembele, Paqueta, Toko Ekambi; Barcola
We say: Metz 1-2 Lyon
Whilst the hosts have had their moments going forward recently, their lack of defensive rigidity remains an issue. Metz may have slightly more to play for, but we are backing Les Gones to come out on top and keep their European hopes alive.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Lyon win with a probability of 65.7%. A draw has a probability of 19.6% and a win for Metz has a probability of 14.69%.
The most likely scoreline is Metz 0-2 Lyon with a probability of 11.03% and the second most likely scoreline is Metz 0-1 Lyon with a probability of 10.38%.
