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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 34.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 0-1 (10.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Mansfield Town |
38.32% ( -1.92) | 27.54% ( 0.43) | 34.14% ( 1.49) |
Both teams to score 49.06% ( -0.99) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.38% ( -1.4) | 56.62% ( 1.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.41% ( -1.14) | 77.59% ( 1.14) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.35% ( -1.75) | 28.65% ( 1.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.53% ( -2.24) | 64.47% ( 2.24) |
Mansfield Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.76% ( 0.28) | 31.24% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.42% ( 0.33) | 67.58% ( -0.33) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Mansfield Town |
1-0 @ 11.18% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.3) 2-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.3) 3-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.29) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.14) Other @ 1.76% Total : 38.31% | 1-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.53% | 0-1 @ 10.41% ( 0.62) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.41) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.97% Total : 34.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 73 |
2 | Stevenage | 36 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 67 |
3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 66 |
4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 66 |
5 | Bradford CityBradford | 37 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 61 |
6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 60 |
7 | Salford City | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 57 |
9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 |
10 | BarrowBarrow | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 52 |
11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 |
12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 37 | 15 | 6 | 16 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 51 |
13 | Walsall | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 48 |
14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 48 |
15 | Grimsby Town | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 46 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
17 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 42 |
19 | Gillingham | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 41 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 36 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 39 | 59 | -20 | 33 |
23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 31 |
24 | Rochdale | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 26 |
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