Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 50.98%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 24.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Republic of Ireland would win this match.