Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 39%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.