Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (11.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Wales in this match.