Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 59.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 17.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.28%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Lebanon win it was 1-0 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.