Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 75.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 9.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.69%) and 1-2 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.12%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (2.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
