Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Roma had a probability of 34.99% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.38%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
