Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 36.22%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.46%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-0 (12.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
