Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-0 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
19.9% ( -0) | 23.64% ( -0) | 56.46% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.62% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.54% ( 0.01) | 50.45% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.62% ( 0.01) | 72.38% ( -0.01) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.27% | 39.72% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.6% | 76.4% ( -0) |
Chelsea Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.31% ( 0) | 17.68% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.68% ( 0.01) | 48.32% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
1-0 @ 6.49% ( -0) 2-1 @ 5.19% ( -0) 2-0 @ 2.99% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.6% 3-2 @ 1.38% 3-0 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 1.34% Total : 19.9% | 1-1 @ 11.23% 0-0 @ 7.02% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.49% Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.63% | 0-1 @ 12.17% 0-2 @ 10.54% 1-2 @ 9.73% 0-3 @ 6.09% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.62% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.64% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.44% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0) 0-5 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 56.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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