Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.67%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 24.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
24.22% | 24.11% | 51.67% |
Both teams to score 53.81% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.3% | 47.71% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.1% | 69.9% |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.99% | 34.01% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.31% | 70.7% |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.55% | 18.45% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.36% | 49.64% |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
1-0 @ 6.77% 2-1 @ 6.17% 2-0 @ 3.65% 3-1 @ 2.22% 3-2 @ 1.87% 3-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.23% Total : 24.22% | 1-1 @ 11.43% 0-0 @ 6.28% 2-2 @ 5.21% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.1% | 0-1 @ 10.6% 1-2 @ 9.67% 0-2 @ 8.96% 1-3 @ 5.45% 0-3 @ 5.05% 2-3 @ 2.94% 1-4 @ 2.3% 0-4 @ 2.13% 2-4 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.33% Total : 51.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 63 | 21 | 42 | 60 |
2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 52 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 47 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 46 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 40 |
7 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 39 |
8 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 38 |
9 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 36 |
10 | Toronto | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 33 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 32 |
13 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 29 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 32 |
14 | DC United | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 59 | -27 | 26 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 63 | 21 | 42 | 60 |
2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 52 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 47 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 46 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 40 |
7 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 39 |
8 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 38 |
9 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 36 |
10 | Toronto | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 33 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 32 |
13 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 29 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 32 |
14 | DC United | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 59 | -27 | 26 |