While their second-placed standing is nothing to be scoffed at, Marseille needed a huge slice of luck to get over the line against Lyon and were unconvincing for 75 minutes against Auxerre, although their excellence on rival territory must also be taken in account.
However, Lens have been an almost unbreakable force at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, and having recently taught Monaco a footballing lesson on home soil, we can envisage the Openda-inspired Sang et Or coming up trumps and leapfrogging their fellow podium contenders in this potentially season-defining showdown.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 37.24%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lens in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lens.
-0.04) 
0.1) 
