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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 38.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.1%) and 3-1 (4.79%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Notts County |
39.2% ( 0.87) | 22.09% ( -0.21) | 38.7% ( -0.66) |
Both teams to score 69.03% ( 0.86) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.9% ( 1.11) | 31.09% ( -1.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.5% ( 1.31) | 52.49% ( -1.31) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.18% ( 0.84) | 16.81% ( -0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.21% ( 1.49) | 46.78% ( -1.49) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.98% ( 0.2) | 17.01% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.84% ( 0.35) | 47.15% ( -0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.12) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.06) 4-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.42% Total : 39.2% | 1-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.56% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 8% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.28) 1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 4.21% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.04) 3-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.34% Total : 38.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 66 | 33 | 33 | 61 |
2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 31 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 61 | 26 | 35 | 60 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 59 | 45 | 14 | 57 |
4 | Wrexham | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 55 |
5 | BarrowBarrow | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 53 |
6 | MK Dons | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 |
7 | Notts County | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 65 | 58 | 7 | 47 |
8 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 47 |
9 | Gillingham | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 47 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 46 |
11 | Morecambe | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 46 |
12 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 45 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 43 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 43 |
15 | Crawley TownCrawley | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 40 |
16 | Walsall | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 39 |
17 | Swindon TownSwindon | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 59 | -3 | 39 |
18 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 37 |
19 | Salford City | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 36 |
20 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 33 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 29 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 29 |
23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 23 |
24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 22 |
> League Two Full Table |