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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Newport County |
31.91% ( -0.03) | 26.21% ( 0.06) | 41.89% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 52.63% ( -0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.18% ( -0.26) | 51.82% ( 0.26) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.42% ( -0.23) | 73.58% ( 0.23) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.69% ( -0.15) | 30.31% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.51% ( -0.18) | 66.49% ( 0.18) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.51% ( -0.13) | 24.48% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.06% ( -0.19) | 58.93% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.44% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.1% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.91% | 1-1 @ 12.46% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.2% | 0-1 @ 10.44% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.35% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4.11% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.45% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.65% Total : 41.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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