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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 66.28%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 14.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
Result | ||
Peterborough United | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
66.28% ( 0.35) | 19.55% ( -0.17) | 14.17% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 50.85% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.25% ( 0.34) | 42.74% ( -0.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.85% ( 0.34) | 65.14% ( -0.34) |
Peterborough United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.97% ( 0.2) | 12.02% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.51% ( 0.42) | 37.49% ( -0.42) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.79% ( -0.05) | 42.2% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.39% ( -0.04) | 78.61% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Peterborough United | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
2-0 @ 11.38% 1-0 @ 10.74% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 6.94% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.48% Total : 66.26% | 1-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.97% Total : 19.55% | 0-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 4% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.54% Total : 14.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 42 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 73 | 45 | 28 | 89 |
2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 42 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 88 |
3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 43 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 75 | 36 | 39 | 87 |
4 | Barnsley | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 74 | 38 | 36 | 82 |
5 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 43 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 73 |
6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 72 |
7 | Derby CountyDerby | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 72 |
8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 43 | 20 | 8 | 15 | 57 | 44 | 13 | 68 |
9 | Portsmouth | 43 | 16 | 17 | 10 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 65 |
10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 63 | 59 | 4 | 58 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 42 | 12 | 20 | 10 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 56 |
12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 56 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 43 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 54 |
14 | Exeter CityExeter | 43 | 14 | 11 | 18 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 53 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 41 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 55 | 64 | -9 | 52 |
16 | Burton Albion | 41 | 13 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 77 | -22 | 49 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 47 |
18 | Port Vale | 43 | 12 | 10 | 21 | 43 | 65 | -22 | 46 |
19 | MK Dons | 43 | 11 | 10 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 43 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 42 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 41 |
21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 42 | 11 | 7 | 24 | 36 | 63 | -27 | 40 |
22 | Morecambe | 43 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 39 | 71 | -32 | 38 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 38 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 43 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 30 | 81 | -51 | 27 |
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