Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
Result | ||
Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
62.84% ( -0.01) | 21.44% ( 0) | 15.72% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 48.5% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.15% ( -0.01) | 47.85% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.97% ( -0.01) | 70.03% ( 0.01) |
Barcelona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.38% ( -0) | 14.62% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.27% ( -0.01) | 42.73% ( 0.01) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.81% ( -0) | 43.19% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.55% ( -0) | 79.45% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
1-0 @ 12.14% 2-0 @ 11.67% 2-1 @ 9.8% 3-0 @ 7.48% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.6% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.38% 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.4% Total : 62.83% | 1-1 @ 10.19% 0-0 @ 6.32% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0) Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.44% | 0-1 @ 5.3% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.28% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.23% 1-3 @ 1.2% 2-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 1.57% Total : 15.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |