Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 75.29%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 7.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.51%) and 3-0 (11.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.7%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
75.29% ( 1.77) | 17.3% ( -0.22) | 7.4% ( -1.55) |
Both teams to score 34.42% ( -5.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.5% ( -3.99) | 51.5% ( 3.99) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.69% ( -3.59) | 73.3% ( 3.58) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.96% ( -0.63) | 12.04% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.48% ( -1.35) | 37.52% ( 1.36) |
Cadiz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
39.13% ( -6.27) | 60.86% ( 6.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
8.91% ( -3.45) | 91.08% ( 3.45) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
2-0 @ 16.42% ( 1.75) 1-0 @ 15.51% ( 2) 3-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.96) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.73) 4-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.37) 3-1 @ 5.75% ( -0.67) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.44) 5-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.52) 5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.23) 6-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 75.29% | 1-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.48) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( 1.1) 2-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.66) Other @ 0.25% Total : 17.31% | 0-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.56) 0-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.94% Total : 7.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |