There is not a huge difference in terms of the quality of these two sides, and we are expecting an open and entertaining contest on Sunday. Both managers would surely be content with a point here, and we are finding it difficult to separate them at San Mames.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.95%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.
0.05) 
-0.05) 
