Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 35.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
