Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 32.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.
