Independiente Medellin 2-1 Nacional - Copa Libertadores Group Stage - Football

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.

Result
Independiente Medellin	Draw	Nacional
45.29% ( 0.01)	26.45% ( -0.01)	28.26% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 50.05% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.71% (

0.02)

54.29% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.31% (

0.01)

75.68% (

-0.02)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.1% (

0.01)

23.89% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.9% (

0.02)

58.1% (

-0.02)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.76% (

34.24% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.06% (

70.93% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Independiente Medellin 45.29%

Nacional 28.26%

Draw 26.45%

Independiente Medellin	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 11.71% 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.38% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0) Other @ 2.66% Total : 45.29%	1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0) Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.45%	0-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.73% 0-2 @ 4.7% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.4% 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0) Other @ 2.26% Total : 28.26%

Head to Head

Apr 19, 2023 11pm

Group Stage

Nacional

2-1

Medellin

Pereiro (37'), Noguera (90+6')
Noguera (1'), Pereiro (38'), Rodriguez (59'), Montiel (80'), Candido (82')

Pons (79')
Moreno (45+2'), Cambindo (63'), Torres (69'), Cadavid (90'), Ricaurte (90+11'), Pardo (90+12'), Pons (90+1')

Form Guide

Medellin 4-2 Metropolitanos

Nacional 2-1 Medellin

Medellin 1-1 Internacional

Medellin 2-0 Magallanes

Magallanes 1-1 Medellin

Medellin 2-1 El Nacional

Torque 0-4 Nacional

Defensor 2-2 Nacional

Internacional 2-2 Nacional

Nacional 3-0 La Luz

Wanderers 0-1 Nacional

Nacional 2-1 Medellin

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