Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.