Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 49.75%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
