Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.15%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 14.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 1-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
66.15% ( -1.36) | 19.12% ( 0.58) | 14.74% ( 0.77) |
Both teams to score 53.87% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.48% ( -1.01) | 39.52% ( 1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.14% ( -1.07) | 61.86% ( 1.07) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.88% ( -0.63) | 11.12% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.45% ( -1.41) | 35.55% ( 1.41) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.61% ( 0.43) | 39.39% ( -0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.91% ( 0.4) | 76.09% ( -0.4) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
2-0 @ 10.56% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.25) 4-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.13) Other @ 4.16% Total : 66.14% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.2) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 19.12% | 1-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 4.08% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.86% Total : 14.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 48 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 41 |
3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 37 |
4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 35 |
5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 29 |
7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 26 |
10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 26 |
11 | Macarthur | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 26 |
12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 25 |
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