Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
