We said: Burnley 1-0 Aston Villa

All eyes should be on the opening 15 minutes in this match; Villa have conceded a league-high 22% of their goals in that period, while only Man City have scored a higher share of their goals in that spell than Burnley. If Villa do survive that period then their chances of success should greatly improve - you have to go back to December 5 for the last time they won a game in which they conceded - but Burnley will be fighting for their lives and it is difficult to look past their recent form. The new manager bounce may not last until the end of the season, but a home tie against a Villa side that is now effectively safe from relegation is about as kind a fixture as Burnley could hope for at this stage of the season. Read more.