We said: Wales 1-1 Poland
Wales have a history of rising to the occasion on home territory, experiences which will give them confidence ahead of this contest. However, Robert Lewandowski is not usually in the opposing lineup, and we cannot see the Barcelona man going through this game without scoring an important goal.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Poland had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Poland win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
-2.43) 
0.35) 
