Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Italy had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Italy win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.