Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 84.06%. A draw had a probability of 10.6% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 5.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 4-0 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.91%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 1-2 (1.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Ajaccio |
84.06% ( 0.72) | 10.56% ( -0.42) | 5.39% ( -0.29) |
Both teams to score 48.02% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.85% ( 0.9) | 27.15% ( -0.9) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.32% ( 1.13) | 47.68% ( -1.12) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.42% ( 0.28) | 4.58% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
81.31% ( 0.85) | 18.69% ( -0.85) |
Ajaccio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.32% ( -0.23) | 49.68% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.57% ( -0.16) | 84.43% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Ajaccio |
3-0 @ 11.11% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.81% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.57% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 7.01% ( -0.25) 4-1 @ 6% ( 0.1) 5-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.22) 5-1 @ 3.7% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.1) 5-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.04) 7-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.09) Other @ 4.29% Total : 84.05% | 1-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.73% Total : 10.56% | 1-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.08% Total : 5.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |