Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 58.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.84%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sevilla would win this match.
Result | ||
Sevilla | Draw | Espanyol |
58.82% ( 0.68) | 22.8% ( -0.29) | 18.37% ( -0.39) |
Both teams to score 49.59% ( 0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.83% ( 0.6) | 49.17% ( -0.6) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.76% ( 0.54) | 71.24% ( -0.54) |
Sevilla Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.61% ( 0.45) | 16.39% ( -0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.97% ( 0.8) | 46.03% ( -0.8) |
Espanyol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.31% ( -0.1) | 40.69% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.72% ( -0.09) | 77.28% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Sevilla | Draw | Espanyol |
1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 10.9% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.01% Total : 58.82% | 1-1 @ 10.84% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.41% Other @ 0.88% Total : 22.8% | 0-1 @ 6% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 2.02% Total : 18.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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