Saturday's Bundesliga action concludes with Hertha Berlin looking to confirm their survival when they host Mainz 05 at the Olympiastadion.
The hosts extended their strong run of form despite conceding a late equaliser last weekend, whilst the visitors bounced back from a winless streak to defeat the champions Bayern Munich.
Match preview
© Reuters
Heading into stoppage time at the Schuco-Arena last Saturday, Hertha were confirming their Bundesliga survival with a 1-0 victory.
However, an equaliser from Joakim Nilsson for Arminia Bielefeld saw the Old Lady have to settle for a point in a 1-1 draw, which also prevented a third successive win.
Despite the late heartbreak, Felix Magath's side retain a six-point advantage over Bielefeld in the automatic drop zone, and remain four points above Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot, who also earned a late equaliser themselves.
Were neither of the two late goals in the respective games scored, Hertha would have been returning to the capital with nine and seven-point advantages, but the thrills of football saw the Bundesliga relegation battle take another twist.
With a trip to second-placed Borussia Dortmund awaiting on the final day next weekend, Saturday's hosts will be eager to finally end the lingering doubts of a catastrophic drop out of the top flight when they welcome Mainz, which all three points would do.
Despite last weekend's setback though, Hertha head into their final home game of the season with plenty of confidence following their strong run of form, with the capital side having picked up 10 points from a possible 18 on offer since Magath took charge back in March.
With only two points being recorded from the previous 27 available, the former Wolfsburg and Fulham boss has silenced many critics in the dramatic turnaround, which will be finalised should his side record yet another victory on matchday 33.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Mainz were seeing their bright start to the season peter out over the last couple of months, following a poor run of just one win from eight Bundesliga games.
That disappointing end to an otherwise successful 2021-22 campaign has seen Die Nullfunfer fall out of contention for continental qualification, although this was never the expectation before a ball was kicked back in August for a side usually fighting it out for relegation.
However, Bo Svensson's side injected life back into their final few weeks of the campaign by seeing off recently-crowned champions Bayern by a 3-1 scoreline at the Opel Arena last Saturday.
It was a Bayern side without Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman and Manuel Neuer, but it remained an otherwise full-strength Bavarian lineup that Mainz took apart in thrilling fashion.
A blistering start saw Jonathan Burkardt and Moussa Niakhate provide Mainz with a deserved 2-0 lead during a first half that Saturday's visitors also struck the woodwork twice.
Robert Lewandowski did halve the deficit before the break, but Leandro Barreiro netted his first goal of the season just before the hour mark to seal the win in an excellent display.
The result means that Saturday's visitors head to the capital in ninth place, but despite having nothing left to play for in their penultimate game of the season, last weekend's victory is evidence to the fact that they are continuing to fight in the remaining weeks with the view to achieving a highest finish possible.
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Hertha will remain without first-choice goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow once again at the weekend, and with the continued absence of Rune Jarstein as well, Marcel Lotka will continue to deputise in goal, as he has done for seven of the last nine matches.
Stevan Jovetic continues to be a big miss in attack, and he is joined on the sidelines by Lee Dong-Jun.
Lukas Klunter is also expected to miss out due to a shoulder injury, whilst the availability of Myziane Maolida remains to be seen due to a knee problem.
Vladimir Darida is a welcome return however, and the midfielder should slot back into Magath's starting 11 immediately, with Marco Richter likely to make way.
As for the visitors, Niklas Tauer remains suspended following his recent red card, and the defender is joined on the sidelines by Lee Jae-sung and Delano Burgzorg.
Paul Nebel is also a doubt due to a sprained ankle, but neither he nor Burgzorg are regulars in the first team anyway.
Jeremiah St Juste returned to the bench following a three-month absence last weekend, but whilst he is a vital component of the Mainz back three, he is likely to remain amongst the substitutes on Saturday once more.
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Lotka; Pekarik, Boyata, Kempf, Plattenhardt; Tousart, Ascacibar; Darida, Boateng, Serdar; Selke
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Bell, Hack, Niakhate; Widmer, Barreiro, Stach, Kohr, Martin; Burkardt, Onisiwo
We say: Hertha Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05
Although Mainz put in a hugely impressive performance to defeat the champions last weekend, on their travels they are a completely different outfit to face.
In fact, the visitors have the second-worst away record in the division, and with the home side in fine form during their revival at the bottom, we can see Hertha nicking the all important win to confirm their survival.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Hertha Berlin has a probability of 33.25% and a draw has a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline is Hertha Berlin 1-1 Mainz 05 with a probability of 11.36% and the second most likely scoreline is Hertha Berlin 1-2 Mainz 05 with a probability of 8.94%.
