Despite the hosts coming into the match as the underdogs, they showed their attacking prowess in the Champions League qualifiers, where they scored twice past the heavily fancied Galatasaray in their home match.
The visitors carry a strong attacking threat themselves, and we expect they will get on the scoresheet in this match, but we feel that the hosts will manage to claim an upset victory in this first-leg encounter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hacken win with a probability of 42.28%. A win for FK Zalgiris had a probability of 33.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hacken win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest FK Zalgiris win was 2-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hacken would win this match.
