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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 56.44%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 20.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
Result | ||
Norwich City | Draw | Birmingham City |
56.44% ( -3.06) | 23.13% ( 0.86) | 20.43% ( 2.19) |
Both teams to score 52% ( 0.96) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.31% ( -0.58) | 47.69% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.11% ( -0.54) | 69.89% ( 0.54) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.3% ( -1.24) | 16.69% ( 1.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.42% ( -2.27) | 46.58% ( 2.27) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.42% ( 2.05) | 37.58% ( -2.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.64% ( 1.95) | 74.36% ( -1.96) |
Score Analysis |
Norwich City | Draw | Birmingham City |
1-0 @ 11.23% ( -0.2) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.62) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 6% ( -0.65) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.28) 3-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.42) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.25) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.2) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.08% Total : 56.44% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.41) 0-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.12% | 0-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.47) 1-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.48) 0-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.38) 1-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.24) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.17) Other @ 1.6% Total : 20.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Burnley | 46 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 87 | 35 | 52 | 101 |
P | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 91 |
P | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 80 |
4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 84 | 56 | 28 | 75 |
5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 70 |
6 | Sunderland | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 69 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 69 |
8 | Millwall | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 68 |
9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 66 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 66 |
11 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 63 |
12 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 63 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 62 |
14 | Bristol City | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 59 |
15 | Hull City | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 58 |
16 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 53 |
17 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 53 |
18 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 53 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 50 |
20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 50 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 49 |
R | Reading | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 44 |
R | Blackpool | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 44 |
R | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 42 |
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