Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Slovakia had a probability of 27.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Slovakia win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Russia in this match.