Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Uganda win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
