Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.34%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (12.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.