Given that the first leg will likely be a tense and cagey encounter, we expect Olimpija and Qarabag to play out a low-scoring stalemate on Thursday, with both teams approaching the contest with caution.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for NK Olimpija Ljubljana had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest NK Olimpija Ljubljana win was 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.02) 
