Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 54.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
