Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 55.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Malta had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.87%) and 1-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-7 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.